{ "campaign": "macd-indicator-behavior-2026-10-15-v4-99pct", "scope": "Related historical evaluations, not independent trials; only ledger-validated real TrainBard exports.", "completed_totals": { "requested": 144768, "valid": 144768, "invalid_guarded": 0, "exported_traded": 144609, "valid_zero_trade_omitted": 159, "errors": 0 }, "source_exports": [ { "filename": "B001-signal-btcusdt-exploration.json", "sha256": "83bb70d5aac089bd825061addb3ab0fd5bbf52aa686fc8ec2639700641b635d2" }, { "filename": "B002-signal-btcusdt-later.json", "sha256": "c38bbfb8a7c495dd1e992c1765bd8da9862747981799def259b08438117ab35d" }, { "filename": "B005-signal-ethusdt-exploration.json", "sha256": "4c850c4bd0e79fea091283ef11083c5ed5ccdee1dc29db242dd9b832bd968314" }, { "filename": "B006-signal-ethusdt-later.json", "sha256": "d822ef9d1b451c6d01a7ea1c5269282609e84495f561321d326362263bb65b44" }, { "filename": "M028-signal-btcusdt-2h-2021-2023-cost200.json", "sha256": 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"requested_next_open_utc": "2024-02-11T18:00:00+00:00", "comparison_counts": [ { "run_id": "M006", "valid_settings": 13440, "observed_traded_rows": 13432, "above_passive_among_observed_traded_rows": 1935, "valid_zero_trade_cash_settings": 8, "zero_trade_cash_above_passive": 0, "all_valid_settings_above_passive": 1935 } ] }, { "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "timeframe": "4h", "start": "2024-01-01", "end": "2025-12-31", "source_filename": "P004-ethusdt-2h4h-2024-2025-passive-2.json", "source_sha256": "6bdd1a258102a2e333c2371d6229cd6f64a9cd8f0647fcbafd46d198a885d310", "recorded_executions": 1, "recorded_return_pct": -12.264678001403809, "recorded_max_drawdown_pct": 64.57575225830078, "requested_next_open_utc": "2024-03-24T12:00:00+00:00", "comparison_counts": [ { "run_id": "M008", "valid_settings": 13440, "observed_traded_rows": 13436, "above_passive_among_observed_traded_rows": 12688, "valid_zero_trade_cash_settings": 4, "zero_trade_cash_above_passive": 4, "all_valid_settings_above_passive": 12692 } ] } ], "passive_denominator_note": "Traded-only and all-valid comparisons are reported separately. Reconciled zero-trade settings remain initial cash with no interest, so their known0% cash return beats a negative passive return. No missing fills or row metrics are reconstructed; omitted zero rows remain excluded from paired analyses.", "core_signal3_to5_by_buffer_gate0": [ { "buffer_bps": 0, "observed_pairs": 896, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 896, "equal": 0, "more": 0 } }, { "buffer_bps": 1, "observed_pairs": 896, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 873, "equal": 1, "more": 22 } }, { "buffer_bps": 2.5, "observed_pairs": 896, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 701, "equal": 16, "more": 179 } }, { "buffer_bps": 5, "observed_pairs": 896, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 368, "equal": 17, "more": 511 } }, { "buffer_bps": 10, "observed_pairs": 890, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 73, "equal": 8, "more": 809 } }, { "buffer_bps": 20, "observed_pairs": 873, "signal3_to5_execution_counts": { "fewer": 0, "equal": 0, "more": 873 } } ], "per_frame_signal3_to5": { "M001": [ { "buffer_bps": 0, "from": 3, "to": 5, "observed_pairs": 112, "execution_counts": { "fewer": 112, 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"signal_length": 5 }, "executions": 1125, "return_pct": -57.775516510009766, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 77.90129852294922 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 0, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 9 }, "executions": 927, "return_pct": -69.6008071899414, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 81.70486450195312 } ], "M002": [ { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 0, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 3 }, "executions": 941, "return_pct": -56.24217987060547, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 65.0432357788086 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 0, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 5 }, "executions": 781, "return_pct": -46.77760314941406, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 56.99305725097656 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 0, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 9 }, "executions": 611, "return_pct": -35.82924270629883, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 48.77536392211914 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 0, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 21 }, "executions": 461, "return_pct": -28.077442169189453, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 42.648284912109375 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 5, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 3 }, "executions": 395, "return_pct": -24.810691833496094, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 38.936195373535156 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 5, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 5 }, "executions": 473, "return_pct": -39.45903015136719, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 47.3301887512207 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 5, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 9 }, "executions": 461, "return_pct": -34.9316291809082, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 41.68598937988281 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 5, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 21 }, "executions": 371, "return_pct": -12.196434020996094, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 31.9498291015625 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 20, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 3 }, "executions": 39, "return_pct": -12.567145347595215, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 42.888614654541016 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 20, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 5 }, "executions": 135, "return_pct": 5.6108245849609375, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 38.693336486816406 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 20, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 9 }, "executions": 227, "return_pct": -22.519920349121094, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 42.63166809082031 }, { "parameters": { "gate_mode": 0, "buffer_bps": 20, "fast_length": 12, "slow_length": 26, "signal_length": 21 }, "executions": 238, "return_pct": -9.896228790283203, "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 38.84296417236328 } ] }, "builder_sha256": "74004124480287a3c2d4534f6e0f7b8b6ac5d9d07182cb8288be558f7fd7d2d3", "limitations": [ "Crypto spot only, two historical periods, a few candle sizes.", "Execution count includes buys and sells; it does not measure trade quality.", "Paired analyses use both-observed traded rows only. Missing zero-trade rows are not imputed into pairs.", "Later-window checks are historical validation, not a prospective holdout or live trading.", "500bar startup is longer in elapsed time on larger candles.", "Historical worked example is locally calculated indicator data, with no reconstructed fills." ], "doubled_cost_sensitivity": [ { "default_run": "M001", "doubled_cost_run": "M028", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "timeframe": "2h", "window": "exploration", "from_cost_pct": 0.1, "to_cost_pct": 0.2, "both_traded_pairs": 13426, "identical_four_metric_rows": 0, "return_change_counts": { "lower": 13422, "equal": 0, "higher": 4 }, "execution_change_counts": { "fewer": 707, "equal": 12719, "more": 0 }, "only_default_traded": 0, "only_doubled_cost_traded": 0, "fee_evidence": "Every recorded traded row charged positive fees. Field settings and original exports are preserved; the two costs do not produce identical four-metric rows.", "interpretation_limit": "Cost changes also changed recorded execution counts in this model. This is not a fixed-fill-path fee subtraction experiment; return changes need not be uniformly negative." }, { "default_run": "M002", "doubled_cost_run": "M030", "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "timeframe": "2h", "window": "later", "from_cost_pct": 0.1, "to_cost_pct": 0.2, "both_traded_pairs": 13406, "identical_four_metric_rows": 0, "return_change_counts": { "lower": 13405, "equal": 0, "higher": 1 }, "execution_change_counts": { "fewer": 5550, "equal": 7856, "more": 0 }, "only_default_traded": 0, "only_doubled_cost_traded": 0, "fee_evidence": "Every recorded traded row charged positive fees. Field settings and original exports are preserved; the two costs do not produce identical four-metric rows.", "interpretation_limit": "Cost changes also changed recorded execution counts in this model. This is not a fixed-fill-path fee subtraction experiment; return changes need not be uniformly negative." } ], "zero_cost_sensitivity": "Zero-cost sensitivity was unavailable through the current interface: displayed zero still yielded positive charged fees. Both intended zero-cost grids were deferred; the two 0.2% grids are sensitivity controls against the same 0.1% BTC two-hour core." }